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Entry comments: This is the most compelling mismatch we've seen all morning. A quality business with 29% upside to analyst consensus, down 3% on a temporary headwind — April cross-border slowdown is directly caused by the Iran war suppressing international travel. That's not structural deterioration. It resolves when the war resolves.
Exit comments: Sold after retiring this trading strategy.

RDW ran 223% YTD purely on SpaceX IPO halo trade excitement — not on fundamentals. The business missed Q1 on both EPS and revenue, is losing $343M annually, won't be profitable in 2026, and the stock's biggest bull just downgraded it citing valuation. Average analyst target is $14.44 vs current $21.25. The SpaceX proxy narrative fades June 12. The 82% float expansion shelf is live overhead. Nothing about this company justifies a $4B+ market cap. Sold into the fade during the SpaceX IPO.

Entry comments: The capex shock sold the stock down — and widened the mismatch. The earnings confirmed the business is genuinely strong (18% revenue growth, 23% profit growth). The market punished the stock for spending on AI infrastructure that is already generating $37B annually at 123% growth. That's the mismatch.
Exit comments: Sold after the AI mania appeared to be cracking.

Shorts borrowed 13.72M shares against only 8.9M that exist to borrow — the float is mechanically broken. Business is inflecting with guidance raised and a $26 analyst target. Gamma at $25/$30 strikes forces market maker buying into any upward move. Social ignition confirmed this morning. The coil has been loaded for months, the catalyst fired yesterday, ignition started today. Sold after this failed to become a meme stock.

GRPN has 53% of its float short with 7.59 days to cover — record bearish bets on a brand everyone knows, sitting near 52-week lows, with a business that's quietly improving while shorts pile in. The WSB post writes itself: most loaded squeeze on the market, nobody's talking about it yet. Sold after this failed to become a meme stock.

Entry comments: The US market expansion is a genuine forward inflection not yet in any revenue numbers, not yet in analyst models, and the stock is still 39.7% below GF Value. That's the rare combination: Pillar 6 story still ahead of fundamentals + Pillar 1 undervaluation confirmed.
Exit comments: Sold after thesis broken.

Entry comments: The Iran war is literally making Cheniere's business better every day the Strait stays closed. Qatar's LNG hub got hit by Iranian drones — customers are desperately redirecting to US LNG. This is the most direct, fundamental beneficiary of the current geopolitical situation with real earnings, real cash flow, analyst consensus buy, and valuation support. It's not a speculative play — it's a quality company in the right place at the right moment.
Exit comments: Sold after thesis broken.

Entry comments: Nvidia reports tomorrow after close. This is the single largest AI infrastructure data point of the quarter. The beat probability is 94.8% per prediction markets. Hyperscalers — Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet — have collectively committed $725B in 2026 capex, nearly double last year. That money flows through Nvidia. The setup for a strong print is as well-supported as any Nvidia earnings in recent memory.
Exit comments: Sold 3/4 right before Nvidia earnings for a 34% profit, sold the rest after muted earnings.

Entry comments: Quality business (GF Score 93) that was suppressed by the Iran war's travel impact — 90% of revenue is international — now getting its primary headwind removed simultaneously with a Q1 earnings beat and ongoing record buybacks. Trading 20.6% below GF Value and 43% below historical P/E at the exact moment its biggest headwind resolves.
Exit comments: Sold after thesis broken.
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