Most indices made nominal new highs this week and they don't look like they are going to stop. The NDX is actually accelerating in its up trend. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is the surprisingly strong chart recovering from its big sell off, holding support and then to make new highs. This can be somewhat worrying as in the late stages of a bull market is the low priced junk that performs. Not suggesting it is late stage bull as all the indices climb the wall of worry and the trend is still up. But it is worth watching for sure.
There is a negative divergence in the transportation index having sold off 700 points from the high. It may be related to the rise in oil. But it does need to turn around or it could lead the whole market lower. On the positive side, the breadth to the amrket is coming back. It is not just the FAANGs making new highs. As a matter of fact, the technical indicators have moved to an area the normally proceeds an intermediate move up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong "Santa Claus" rally here coming into the year end.
Semiconductors (SMH) is in a strong riding channel making new highs. Semis remain super strong and not an indicator markets are going lower.
Financials (FAS) held support on its pull back and could be either continuing the up trend or making a head and shoulders pattern. I think they do want to go higher but we'll have to wait and see.
Biotechs (LABU, XBI and BIB) are still struggling. They appear to be in a down trending channel making a 4th wave corrective of a 5 wave pattern. But the ETFs are at the bottom of the long term up trending channel so the 5th wave may be truncated. It will be important for them to hold the lower channel line.
Oil (USO) has recovered nicely from its recent lows forming an up trending channel. But, it is at the top of the channel and at major lateral resistance It will be very difficult for oil to break out of this base it has been forming. I would be very careful about going long oil stocks in this area.
Gold (GLD) is near support and trading in a narrow range. Not much to do in here until a real direction is given. I am not looking at any gold stocks long or short.
Remember, the trend is your friend.
ABEO: On the longer term chart the stock is in a rising channel and looks to be breaking out of the 4th wave (of a 5 wave pattern) down channel. If this is the start of wave 5, then I would look to go long over $17.00 with $22.00 and then $28.00 as the price targets. Short ratio 5.2 days to cover.
ACBFF: A cannabis stock that recently broke out of its wedge pattern to trade as high as $5.71 and closing at $5.66. It does trade on the pink sheets so it may be harder to trade. But, this is a very strong sector and there is a lot of blue sky above this stock. I don't trade the pinks but for those that do, this stock looks like it is going much higher as the measured move comes in around $7.50 and the top of the channel comes in around $15.00.
GROW: A block chain play. Coming from a low of $1.25 in September. In late October it spiked to $4.25 and then retraced the gains holding support at $2.35. The last 4 days the stock has moved up strongly. Friday it spiked to a high of $4.97 before closing just off the highs at $4.91. Hard to tell if it will have follow through but if the momentum continues then $6.50 and $8.00 are the targets.
MARA: Another block chain play. Recently reverse split the stock formed a wedge pattern and on Thursday and Friday exploded through lateral resistance at $2.50. On Friday it traded as high as $6.04 closing at $5.95. After hours the stock continued to run hitting a high of $7.00. I'll be watching closely Monday morning as these low float stocks in a hot sector can run a long ways.
MARK: Stock is in a strong rising channel after breaking out of its base at $4.50. On Friday it traded as high as $9.79 closing at $9.15. I will look to go long over $9.80 with $11.00 and $12.00 as price targets.
RIOT: Stock is way ahead of itself going vertical in the last 4 days from $9.00 to $23.00. But, another block chain stock. Hard to say what will happen in here. For me it is too dangerous. But next target is $30.00.
SRAX: Another block chain play. Stock popped out of a wedge formation last week and has moved up strongly the last 4 days. Friday it traded as high as $7.95 closing at $7.69. Like the others it has moved a long way so I will be trading with caution. Price target $9.00.
VRAY: Back in March the stock traded sharply up to $10.35. It then retraced in a 3 wave corrective back to $4.25. Since then it has been grinding its way higher. Friday it traded as high as $9.65 closing at $9.44. I will be looking to go long over $10.35 with $12.00 and $13.00 as price targets. Short ratio 14.1 days to cover so could add momentum to a break out.
@Turbobob Hey Bob, I am interested in how you estimated the top of the channel for ACBFF. I went long on the breakout over 5.45, with the conservative goal of the stock testing the round number 6.0. Normally, I have patience issues holding a stock on a clear sky breakout, so your method of estimating price levels overhead in such a situation would be extremely helpful for me. Much appreciated!
The measured move comes from the break out above $2.34 to $5.45 ($3.10). Add that to the pull back low of $4.00 and you get $7.10. So, my price target is in the $7.00 to $7.50 range. If you draw a line connecting the lows you will get a rising channel line. If you draw the parallel lin through the high you will see that the top of the channel is in the $18 to $29. range. That is the potential for it. Long shot, but potential.
@Turbobob Thank you for the description! Very helpful!
No problem. Happy it helps.
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